WTIO30 FMEE 110048 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/13/20142015 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOALANE) 2.A POSITION 2015/04/11 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 67.4 E (TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 330 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 190 34 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 190 NW: 90 48 KT NE: 150 SE: 160 SW: 120 NW: 70 64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2015/04/11 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H: 2015/04/12 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 67.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36H: 2015/04/12 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 48H: 2015/04/13 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 60H: 2015/04/13 12 UTC: 29.0 S / 65.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 72H: 2015/04/14 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2015/04/15 00 UTC: 34.3 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 120H: 2015/04/16 00 UTC: 35.4 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS: T=4.5+ CI=4.5+ JOALANE HAS OBVIOUSLY STRENGTHENED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. AMSUB MW IMAGERY FROM NOAA 19 DEPICT A RE-BUILDING EYE-WALL OVER MOST QUADRANTS AND A DECREASING TILT BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND THE ELONGATED EYE FEATURE SEEN ON IR SINCE 16-17Z. 3H RUNNING MEAN OF DT IS AT 4.6. SATCON AT 2112Z IS AT 84 KT (1 MIN WINDS) SUGGESTING 10 MIN WINDS NEAR 70-75 KT ... IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT ANALYSIS. THE ENVIRONMENT OF JOALANE IS EXPECTED TO DEGRADE TODAY AS JOALANE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. JOALANE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TONIGHT OVER MARGINAL HEAT OCEANIC CONTENT AND PENETRATING IN A BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS HOWEVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN POWERFUL AS STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS ONCE THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A POST-TROP CYCLONE. THE END OF THE EXTRATROP PROCESS IS ONLY FORECAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES. BEFORE THAT TIME, THE POLEWARDS TRACK OF JOALANE WILL BE TEMPORARILY BLOCKED MONDAY BY A BUILDING BUT TRANSIENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.=