WTIO30 FMEE 101858 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/13/20142015 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOALANE) 2.A POSITION 2015/04/10 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 66.7 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 330 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 190 34 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 190 NW: 90 48 KT NE: 160 SE: 170 SW: 130 NW: 70 64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2015/04/11 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 24H: 2015/04/11 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 36H: 2015/04/12 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 48H: 2015/04/12 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 66.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 60H: 2015/04/13 06 UTC: 27.9 S / 65.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 72H: 2015/04/13 18 UTC: 29.3 S / 66.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2015/04/14 18 UTC: 33.0 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM 120H: 2015/04/15 18 UTC: 34.5 S / 73.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS: T=4.0- CI=4.5- THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINDED A CURVED BAND OVER MUCH OF THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH A 0.9 TO 1.1 BAND TOUR. RECENTLY, THE CLOUD TOPS HAS COOLED AND AN EYE-LIKE CLOUD PATTERN HAS APPEARED. THIS EYE IS MORE TO THE EAST THAN THE CURRENT POSITION AND IT IS UNCLEAR IF IT IS VERTICALY ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE CENTER. THE ENVIRONMENT OF JOALANE IS EXPECTED TO DEGRADE AS JOALANE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET AND SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. JOALANE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS SATURDAY LATE OR SUNDAY EARLY OVER MARGINAL HEAT OCEANIC CONTENT AND PENETRATING IN A BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT.=