WTIO30 FMEE 071302 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/13/20142015 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOALANE) 2.A POSITION 2015/04/07 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 62.7 E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 170 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 170 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2015/04/08 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H: 2015/04/08 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H: 2015/04/09 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 62.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H: 2015/04/09 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 62.8 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 60H: 2015/04/10 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 63.5 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 72H: 2015/04/10 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 64.3 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2015/04/11 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 120H: 2015/04/12 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.0+ THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CLEARLY IMPROVED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. AN BANDING EYE APPEARED AT 1030Z. THE DT AT 12Z IS 4.5. THE FINAL T IS 4.0 ACCORDING TO THE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. JOALANE SEEMS TO INITIATE ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT AS FORCASTED, AND IS ABOUT TO ACHIEVE ITS CLOCKWISE LOOP. THE MOVEMENT OF JOALANE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER SLOW FOR THE NETX 24/36H, DUE TO A MID LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH. FROM THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONNED RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN AND A COL SHOULD TAKE ITS PLACE, AND THE SYSTEM 13 SHOULD MOVE MORE CLEARLY SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS EAST. ON SATURDAY, IT SHOULD ADOPT A SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST TRACK. OVER THIS FORCASTED TRACK, GLOBALLY SOUTHWARD, JOALANE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE OHC IS SUFFICIENT UP TO ABOUT 21S. THE SYSTEM IS GOING TO SHIFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TOMORROW WEDNESDAY, A UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL SHOULD TAKE PLACE POLEWARD. THIS CHANNEL SHOULD BE EFFICIENT UP TO FRIDAY 10 OR SATURDAY 11. ON SUNDAY 12, THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. JOALANE IS ALSO A SERIOUS THREAT FOR RODRIGUES ISLAND.=