WTXS31 PGTW 070900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 93.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 93.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 20.2S 95.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 22.4S 98.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 24.8S 101.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 27.4S 104.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 32.8S 110.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 94.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (IKOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1193 NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE EYE HAS BECOME IRREGULAR. A 070325Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC IKOLA IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 21S WILL REMAIN ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS STEERING RIDGE. THE COMBINED EFFECT OF INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//