WTIO30 FMEE 261915 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/10/20142015 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GLENDA) 2.A POSITION 2015/02/26 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 67.2 E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :120 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 520 SE: 560 SW: 460 NW: 330 34 KT NE: 410 SE: 410 SW: 330 NW: 170 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2015/02/27 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 66.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 24H: 2015/02/27 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 36H: 2015/02/28 06 UTC: 26.8 S / 67.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 48H: 2015/02/28 18 UTC: 28.9 S / 68.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 60H: 2015/03/01 06 UTC: 31.3 S / 69.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 72H: 2015/03/01 18 UTC: 33.8 S / 71.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2015/03/02 18 UTC: 39.2 S / 77.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM 120H: 2015/03/03 18 UTC: 46.3 S / 87.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS: T=2.5- CI=3.0- GLENDA LOOKS RAGGED TONIGHT ... THE ESTIMATED CENTER IS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM WAS SUFFERING FROM RATHER STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ... BUT SHEAR IS ONLY AT 6 KT FROM THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA AT 12Z. ASCAT-A DATA AT 1709Z SHOW SOME 40 KT WINDS AT ABOUT 130 NM FROM THE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT ... SUGGESTING THAT STRONGER WINDS, AT LEAST AT 45 KT, OCCUR NEAR THE RMW (ESTIMATED ABOUT 65 NM BASED ON LATEST AVAILABLE MW IMAGERY AND DEFINED MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR) GLENDA APPEARS AS AN ILL-DEFINED SYSTEM REGARDS TO THE CLOUD STRUCTURE (PROBABLY "ASPHYXIATED" BY SOME DRY MID-LEVEL AIR OVER ITS WESTERN FLANK) BUT ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND SOMEWHAT VIGOROUS SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY AND WINDS RADII HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARDS. CONSEQUENTLY AND ACCORDING TO THE WIND-PRESSURE RELATIONSHIP USED AT THE RSMC (COURTNEY AND KNAFF) THE MSLP IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE, GLENDA SHOULD GO ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ON FRIDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS UNDER THE DOUBLE INFLUENCES OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AT THIS TERM TO THE EAST AND THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A WEAKNESS TO ITS SOUTH. ON SUNDAY, GLENDA SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST AHEAD A WIDE AND DEEP LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO EVOLVE NOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING, KEEPING ON THE BENEFIT OF A VERY GOOD POLAR UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, SO THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE YET A LITTLE PERIOD OF INTNESIFICATION. ON FRIDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER MARGINAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT WATERS, AND BEGIN TO BE UNDER A WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINTE .THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. SATURDAY AND BEYOND, EXPERIENCING A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, GLENDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY. INTERACTING WITH THE WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LOOSE PROGRESSIVELY ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY.=