WTIO30 FMEE 250646



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/10/20142015

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  10  (GLENDA)



2.A POSITION 2015/02/25 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 68.9 E

(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT    DECIMAL

NINE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST 10 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :157 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 410 SE: 460 SW: 480 NW: 150

34 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SW: 190 NW: 0







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/02/25 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 68.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2015/02/26 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 67.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2015/02/26 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 66.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2015/02/27 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2015/02/27 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 66.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2015/02/28 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 67.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/03/01 06 UTC: 32.7 S / 71.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2015/03/02 06 UTC: 37.9 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=3.5- AND CI=3.5-



ASCAT-A DATA OF 0501Z WAS HELPFUL TO ASSESS STORM POSITION, INTENSITY

AND WIND STRUCTURE. THE WINDS STRUCTURE APPEAR FAIRLY BROAD ON THE

ASCAT DATA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS (READ AT 39 KT) RATHER FAR AWAY

FROM THE CENTER AND WITH DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS STILL STRUGGLING TO

CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT LIES

IN-BETWEEN THE ASCAT WINDS AND THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE

SATELLITE ESTIMATES. (SATCON AT 50 KT - 10 MIN WINDS)



SINCE LAST NIGHT, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARDS BUT SHOULD RESUME

WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS A POLEWARDS TRACK ACCORDING ALL NWP

GUIDANCE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.



THEREAFTER, IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS UNDER THE

DOUBLE INFLUENCES OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE

LOCATED AT THIS TERM TO THE EAST AND THE NORTH-EAST AND A WEAKNESS TO

THE SOUTH.



ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, SYSTEM EVOLVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN

A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT (2 KT ACCORDING TO 00Z CIMSS ESTIMATION).

EQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS VERY GOOD AND ANOTHER OUTFLOW

CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD POLEWARD WEDNESDAY.

GIVEN THE CURRENT WIND STRUCTURE AND LACK OF INNER-CORE, THE

INTENSIFICATION RATE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.



FROM FRIDAY, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS WEAKENING WESTWARD AND

NORTHWARD IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

IN THE SAME TIME , THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER MARGINAL

OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.

THE CONDUCTIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WINDOW SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY

STOP ON FRIDAY EARLY AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.

FROM SATURDAY, EXPERIENCING A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY VERTICAL

WINDSHEAR, IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY.

INTERACTING WITH THE WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO

LOOSE PROGRESSIVELY ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.=