WTIO30 FMEE 291244



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/8/20142015

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (EUNICE)



2.A POSITION 2015/01/29 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 66.9 E

(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX    DECIMAL NINE

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :30 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SW: 370 NW: 370

34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 240

48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150

64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/01/30 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 67.2 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2015/01/30 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2015/01/31 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 69.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2015/01/31 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 70.7 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2015/02/01 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 73.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2015/02/01 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 75.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/02/02 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 81.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

120H: 2015/02/03 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 87.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=CI=6.0-



DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, EUNICE HAS STRENGTHENED. CLASSICAL AND

MICROWAVE (SSMI 1022Z) SATELLITE IMAGERIES REVEAL A WARMING EYE AND A

RING OF INTENSE CONVECTION. CURRENT ASSESSMENT IS COHERENT WITH AMSU

DATA.



UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE

SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-EASTWARD UP TO SATURDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE IS FORECASTED TO BECOME

LESS GOOD. BUT, THANKS TO THE LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A GOOD

POLERWARD OUTFLOW, EUNICE SHOULD REMAIN ITS INTENSITY.



FROM SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND

WESTWARD AND SO EUNICE SHOULD CURVE EASTWARDS THEN

EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS FROM MONDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEGIN TO

DETERIORATE SLOWLY WITH THE STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR. THE

SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKENING.

MONDAY, THE STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST SHOULD

ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.=