WTIO30 FMEE 290702



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/8/20142015

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (EUNICE)



2.A POSITION 2015/01/29 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 66.5 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX    DECIMAL

FIVE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :17 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 370 SE: 460 SW: 370 NW: 370

34 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 240

48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 100

64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/01/29 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 66.9 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2015/01/30 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 67.3 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2015/01/30 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 68.3 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2015/01/31 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 69.9 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2015/01/31 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 71.9 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2015/02/01 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 74.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/02/02 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2015/02/03 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 85.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=CI=5.5-



DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, EUNICE HAS ADOPTED A TINY EYE PATTERN THAT

IS WARMING, SHOWING AN INTENSIFICATION.



UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE,

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-EASTWARD UNTIL SATURDAY

MORNING. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED TO BE FAVOURABLE AND EUNICE SHOULD INTENSIFY UP TO THE

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, UNDER THE RIDGE,

THE VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR SHOULD KEEP WEAK UNTIL SUNDAY AND THE ALREADY

EXISTING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH

OF THE SYSTEM, THAT SHOULD SUSTAIN A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.



FROM SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD

AND SO EUNICE SHOULD CURVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. SUNDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE SLOWLY WITH THE STRENGTHENING

WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR AND COOLER SST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY

WEAKENING.

MONDAY, THE STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ACCELERATE THE

WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.=