WTIO30 FMEE 281829



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/8/20142015

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (EUNICE)



2.A POSITION 2015/01/28 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 65.5 E

(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE    DECIMAL

FIVE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 9 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.5/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 440 SE: 250 SW: 200 NW: 200

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 60 SW: 90 NW: 70

48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/01/29 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 66.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2015/01/29 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2015/01/30 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 68.0 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2015/01/30 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2015/01/31 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 71.2 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

72H: 2015/01/31 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 73.7 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/02/01 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2015/02/02 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 87.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T AND CI=5.0-



THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION SEEMS TO SLOW DOWN.

THE EYE IS LESS REGULAR ON THE LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND ON THE

LAST MW DATA OF 1249Z AND 1532Z (BANDING EYE OR EYE REMPLACEMENT),

UNTIL QUITE DISAPPEARED TEMPORARY ON THE LAST IR IMAGERY.



UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE,

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-EASTWARD UNTIL SATURDAY

MORNING. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED TO BE VERY FAVOURABLE AND EUNICE SHOULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UP

TO THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, UNDER THE

RIDGE, THE VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR SHOULD KEEP WEAK UNTIL SUNDAY AND THE

ALREADY EXISTING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO

THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, THAT SHOULD SUSTAIN A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL

DIVERGENCE.



FROM SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD

AND SO EUNICE SHOULD CURVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. SUNDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE SLOWLY WITH THE STRENGTHENING

WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR AND COOLER SST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY

WEAKENING.

MONDAY, THE STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ACCELERATE THE

XEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.=