WTIO30 FMEE 280708



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/7/20142015

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  7  (DIAMONDRA)



2.A POSITION 2015/01/28 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 79.3 E

(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE    DECIMAL

THREE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :83 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 440 SE: 460 SW: 490 NW: 180

34 KT NE: 290 SE: 290 SW: 260 NW: 110







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/01/28 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2015/01/29 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2015/01/29 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2015/01/30 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 83.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2015/01/30 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 84.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2015/01/31 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 86.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/02/01 06 UTC: 27.7 S / 89.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2015/02/02 06 UTC: 34.3 S / 91.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=3.0 AND CI=3.0



MW FIX OF THIS MORNING WERE USEFULL TO RELOCATE FARTHER EAST THE

CENTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. DIAMONDRA HAS RESUMED LAST NIGHT ON

A EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE

NER.THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON GEOSTAT IMAGERY WITH A PARTIAL

EXPOSED CENTER THAT HAS JUST APPEARED RECENTLY NORTH OF THE DEEP

CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT

DVORAK ESTIMATES (RANGING FROM 30-40 KT 10 MIN WINDS) AND IS BASED ON

BELIEVABLE 40-45 KT WINDS READ ON THE ASCAT-B PASS OF THIS MORNING.



DIAMONDRA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTH-EASTWARDS UNDER THE

STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND A

TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN ITS SOUTH.

AS DIAMONDRA TRACKS SOUTH-EASTWARDS IN THE SAME DIRECTION THAN THE

WINDSHEAR, IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND IT IS NOT

EXCLUDED THAT A TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE

NEXT 24 HOURS.

FROM SATURDAY, DIAMONDRA SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION,

WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE MID-LATITUDES GENERAL

CIRCULATION.=