WTIO30 FMEE 180120



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/5/20142015

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (BANSI)



2.A POSITION 2015/01/18 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.8 S / 73.5 E

(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE

DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : EAST 19 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 956 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :83 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 610 SE: 370 SW: 1,170 NW: 410

34 KT NE: 330 SE: 260 SW: 520 NW: 310

48 KT NE: 220 SE: 190 SW: 220 NW: 150

64 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 1100 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/01/18 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 78.7 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2015/01/19 00 UTC: 29.3 S / 86.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

36H: 2015/01/19 12 UTC: 33.5 S / 90.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

48H: 2015/01/20 00 UTC: 35.7 S / 94.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

60H: 2015/01/20 12 UTC: 37.0 S / 101.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

DISSIPATING





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=3.5+ AND CI=4.5+



THE CURRENT POSITION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN WITHOUT ANY RECENT MW

IMAGERY. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW CLEARLY SHEARED WITH THE CENTER

GETTING CLOSER TO THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE

CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS IN THE LOWER SIDE OF THE LATEST

DVORAK ESTIMATES (RANGING FROM 70 TO 80 KT - 10 MIN WINDS)



TODAY, BANSI WILL REMAIN ON A FAST EAST-SOUTH-EAST TRACK UNDER THE

DUAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGHS LOCATED IN ITS

NORTH-EAST AND NORTH AND A HIGH TO MID-LEVEL MID-LAT TROUGH LOCATED

TO THE SOUTH-OUTH-EAST OF BANSI AND WELL DEPICT ON WV IMAGERY EAST OF

70E.



ON THIS PATH, THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDSHEAR, AND THE LOWERING OF

THE OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL ABOUT 25S, WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE

UNFAVORABLE TO THE SYSTEM. BANSI SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL

TRASITION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FROM MONDAY, IT SHOULD TRACK SOUTH-EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING

INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH THE

MID-LATITUDES TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.



WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG WITHIN BANSI UNTIL ITS FINAL

MERGING WITH THE COLD FRONT.=