WTIO30 FMEE 161913



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/5/20142015

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (BANSI)



2.A POSITION 2015/01/16 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 67.1 E

(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN

DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 11 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/6.0/W 1.0/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 935 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 720 SE: 780 SW: 640 NW: 560

34 KT NE: 460 SE: 500 SW: 500 NW: 370

48 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SW: 300 NW: 220

64 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 150



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1500 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/01/17 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2015/01/17 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 71.8 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2015/01/18 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2015/01/18 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2015/01/19 06 UTC: 30.6 S / 86.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2015/01/19 18 UTC: 33.4 S / 88.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/01/20 18 UTC: 35.2 S / 94.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

120H: 2015/01/21 18 UTC: 35.1 S / 100.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT

LOW



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=4.5+ AND CI=6.0+



THE DVORAK SIGNATURE HAS DEGRADED ONCE MORE FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH

AN EYE DIAMETER CLOSE TO 45 NM. 1409Z MW PICTURE SHOWS AN ERODED

EYE-WALL NORTHWESTWARD.  BANSI CONTINUES TO MOVE REGULARLY AND

RAPIDLY ON A SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK.



TONIGHT BANSI IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE ON TRACKING EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD.

WITHIN THE NIGHT BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE

AGAIN SOUTH-EASTWARD.



ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL

RIDGE AXIS, AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD COME CLOSER TO THE

SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR IS

CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE AND IN RELATIONSHIP

WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENTS NEAR 25S, BANSI IS LIKELY TO BECOME

A POST-TROPICAL HYBRID SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY, THEN EXTRA-TROPICAL FROM

MONDAY OR TUESDAY.



UNTIL TUESDAY, THE WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL

CIRCULATION. WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FILL UP RAPIDLY.=