WTIO30 FMEE 160657



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/5/20142015

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (BANSI)



2.A POSITION 2015/01/16 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 65.5 E

(TWENTY    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE    DECIMAL FIVE

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 16 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/S 0.0/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 923 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 115 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 720 SE: 780 SW: 640 NW: 300

34 KT NE: 370 SE: 500 SW: 500 NW: 260

48 KT NE: 220 SE: 300 SW: 300 NW: 190

64 KT NE: 150 SE: 180 SW: 180 NW: 130



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 1100 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2015/01/16 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2015/01/17 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2015/01/17 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 71.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2015/01/18 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND=080 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2015/01/18 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2015/01/19 06 UTC: 28.6 S / 83.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2015/01/20 06 UTC: 33.7 S / 90.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

120H: 2015/01/21 06 UTC: 34.0 S / 95.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=6.5+ AND CI=6.5+



THE DVORAK SIGNATURE HAS SLIGHTLY FLUCTUATED FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS,

BUT GLOBALLY THE SYSTEM HAS FEW EVOLVED. THE CURRENT ESTIMATE IS IN

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OTHER LATEST DVORAK ASSESSMENT FROM REPORTING

AGENCIES AND ADT (6.6 AT 0600Z). IT IS MOVING REGULARLY AND RAPIDLY

ON A SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK. THE MASSES CLOUDY OF BANSI BEGIN TO LEAVE

RODRIGUES ISLAND WHERE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL DETERIORATED BUT

SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON.



BANSI IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE ON TRACKING EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD DURING

THE NEXT NIGHT. WITHIN THE NIGHT BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE

SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE AGAIN SOUTH-EASTWARD.



ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, SYSTEM PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL

RIDGE AXIS, AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD COME CLOSER TO THE

SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR IS

CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND IN RELATIONSHIP WITH LOWER

OCEANIC HEAT CONTENTS NEAR 25S, BANSI IS LIKELY TO BECOME A

POST-TROPICAL HYBRID SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY, THEN EXTRATROPICAL FROM

MONDAY OR TUESDAY.



UNTIL MONDAY, THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG

WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.=