WTIO30 FMEE 191222



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/1/20142015

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  1  (ADJALI)



2.A POSITION 2014/11/19 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1 S / 70.5 E

(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY    DECIMAL FIVE

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 90 SE: 170 SW: 200 NW: 90

34 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2014/11/20 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 69.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

24H: 2014/11/20 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 68.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

36H: 2014/11/21 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

48H: 2014/11/21 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

60H: 2014/11/22 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 61.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW

72H: 2014/11/22 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2014/11/23 12 UTC: 13.6 S / 54.5 E, MAX WIND=000 , DISSIPATING





2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=2.5-, CI= 3.0-.



THE CENTRE IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED ON SATELITE IMAGERY SINCE 0930Z

NORTH-WEST OF THE CONVECTION. THE EFFECT OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AS THE SYSTEME TRACK MORE

SOUTH-WESTERLY.



ADJALI IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD UNDER THE INCREASING STEERING

INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARDS, THEN WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON

THUESDAY, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW LEVELS HIGH

PRESSURES.



ON THIS TRACK, ADJALI SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUFFER A NORTH-WESTERLY

VERTICAL WINDSHEAR UNTIL THUESDAY. IN VIEW OF ITS SMALL SIZE AND

DEGRADATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ADJALI IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY

WEAKEN.



FROM FRIDAY, THE RESIDUAL DEPRESSION SHOULD TRACK WESTWARD THEN

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW LEVELS

HIGH PRESSURESFILLING YP. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSIT

NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES ARCHIPELAGO ON SUNDAY.=