WTIO30 FMEE 181834



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/1/20142015

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  1  (ADJALI)



2.A POSITION 2014/11/18 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6 S / 70.3 E

(ELEVEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY    DECIMAL THREE

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :22 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90

34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2014/11/19 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2014/11/19 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 69.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2014/11/20 06 UTC: 14.1 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

48H: 2014/11/20 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 66.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

60H: 2014/11/21 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 64.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

72H: 2014/11/21 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 62.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2014/11/22 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 58.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW

120H: 2014/11/23 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT

LOW



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=3.0-, CI=3.5-



FOR THE LAST SIX HOURS, INFRA-RED CLASSICAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS

SOME BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC, BUT THE STRUCTURE OF

THE SYSTEM HAS STILL DETERIORATED. THE FIX HAS BEEN EXTRAPOLATED

THANKS TO 1458Z F18 MW.



ADJALI IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF

THE NEAR EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL RIDGE. TONIGHT ,WITH THE DECREASING

STEERING FLOW, ADJALI SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY ENOUGH ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK.

TOMORROW, IT IS EXPECTED TO BEND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE

STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE.



ON THIS TRACK, ADJALI SHOULD SUFFER A NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL

WINDSHEAR. IN VIEW OF ITS SMALL SIZE AND DEGRADATING ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS (SST AT 26/27 DEGREES, DRY AIR WITHIN MID-LAYERS AND

WEAKENING DIVERGENCE), ADJALI IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN.



FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD THEN

WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW LEVELS

HIGH PRESSURES AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO

TRANSIT NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES ARCHIPELAGO AT THE END OF THE WEEK.=