WTIO30 FMEE 171248



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/1/20142015

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  1  (ADJALI)



2.A POSITION 2014/11/17 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.5 S / 67.9 E

(NINE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN    DECIMAL NINE

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 110

34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 70

48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2014/11/18 00 UTC: 10.6 S / 68.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2014/11/18 12 UTC: 11.9 S / 69.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2014/11/19 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 69.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2014/11/19 12 UTC: 13.7 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2014/11/20 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 68.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2014/11/20 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 66.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2014/11/21 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

120H: 2014/11/22 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 59.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=CI=4.0-



ADJALI IS A SMALL SYSTEM. CONVECTION IS NOT REALLY CONSOLIDATED AND

REMAINS CLEARLY FLUCTUATING. INTENSIFICATION SEEMS STOPPED FOR THE

LAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATION AT 4.0- IS CONSISTENT WITH KNES

(3.5), PGTW (3.5) AND ADT (3.5-). MSLP AND WINDS EXTENSIONS HAVE BEEN

RECALIBRATED THANKS TO 0520Z ASCAT PATH.



ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS GOOD: WET ENVIRONMENT WITHIN LOW AND

MID TROPOSPHERIC LAYERS AND GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE VERTICAL

WIND-SHEAR IS WEAK NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE UPPER LEVEL

DIVERGENCE IS GOOD POLEWARD.



THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY ACCELERATED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. TOMOROW,

ADJALI IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWARD ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF

THE NEAR EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL RIDGE. ON THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS REMAINS GOOD. THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY SHOULD OCCUR DURING

THIS DAY. HOWEVER, IN RELATION WITH THE ACTUAL EVOLUTION

(INTENSIFICATION BREAK) AND WITH THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM

(INFLUENCE OF THE ENVIRONMENT), THIS FORECAST INTENSITY IS DIFFICULT.



IN THE NIGHT FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, ADJALI SHOULD DECELERATE ON A

SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL

HIGH PRESSURES REBUILDING IN THE SOUTH-WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS

ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE. COOLER SST, DRY AIR WITHIN MID

TROPOSPHERIC LAYERS AND A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY

CONSTRAINT SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.



FROM WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ADOPT A SOUTHWESTWARD THEN

WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH

PRESSURES AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.=