WTIO30 FMEE 170627



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/1/20142015

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  1  (ADJALI)



2.A POSITION 2014/11/17 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.2 S / 67.2 E

(NINE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN    DECIMAL TWO

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 190 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 170

34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90

48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2014/11/17 18 UTC: 10.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2014/11/18 06 UTC: 11.2 S / 68.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2014/11/18 18 UTC: 12.0 S / 68.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2014/11/19 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 68.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2014/11/19 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 68.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2014/11/20 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2014/11/21 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 64.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

120H: 2014/11/22 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 60.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=CI=4.0-



ADJALI IS A SMALL SYSTEM. THE INTENSIFICATION SEEMS TO BE LESS RAPID

FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATION AT 4.0- IS CONSISTENT WITH

KNES (4.0), PGTW (3.5) AND ADT (3.5-).



ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS GOOD: WET ENVIRONMENT WITHIN LOW AND

MID TROPOSPHERIC LAYERS AND GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE VERTICAL

WIND-SHEAR IS WEAK NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE UPPER LEVEL

DIVERGENCE IS GOOD POLEWARD.



DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY

SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL MID

LEVEL RIDGE. ON THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS GOOD

OR NEARLY EXCELLENT TODAY.



TUESDAY, ADJALI SHOULD DECELERATE ON A SOUTHWARD THEN

SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL

MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES REBUILDING IN THE SOUTH-WEST. THE MAXIMUM

INTENSITY SHOULD OCCUR DURING THIS DAY.



TUESDAY MORNING, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO

DETERIORATE WITH COOLER SST, DRY AIR WITHIN MID TROPOSPHERIC LAYERS

AND A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT.



FROM WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ADOPT A SOUTHWESTWARD THEN

WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH

PRESSURES AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.=