WTIO30 FMEE 170049



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/1/20142015

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  1  (ADJALI)



2.A POSITION 2014/11/17 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.1 S / 66.7 E

(NINE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX    DECIMAL SEVEN

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT :   UNDETERMINED



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 190 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 170

34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1900 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2014/11/17 12 UTC: 10.0 S / 67.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2014/11/18 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2014/11/18 12 UTC: 12.1 S / 68.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2014/11/19 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 68.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2014/11/19 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2014/11/20 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 66.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2014/11/21 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 65.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

120H: 2014/11/22 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 61.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

T=CI=3.5-



 RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVE THE LAST HOURS WITH

CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZED IN CURVED BAND WRAPPING

AROUND THE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CENTRE (TEMPORARY HOT SPOT). ON AMSR2

DATA OF 20H33, CLOSE RING IN BOTH 37 AND 85GHZ.



ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING: WET ENVIRONMENT, GOOD LOW

LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE MONSOON SIDE (AND IMPROVING ON THE "WEAK"

SOUTH-EAST QUADRANT), GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A LOW SHEAR

NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.



DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK

SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL MID

LEVEL RIDGE. ON THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GOOD OR

NEARLY EXCELLENT MONDAY, THEN ON TUESDAY THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO

UNDERGO A UPPER LEVEL NORTH TO NORTH-WESTERLY CONSTRAINT.



BEYOND THAT TIME, A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTHERLY THEN

NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN SHOULD

GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.=