NHC Eastern North Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Mon, 06 Nov 2023 05:03:16 GMT

314
ABPZ20 KNHC 060503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Sun Nov 5 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Pilar, located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Pilar (EP4/EP192023)

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Mon, 06 Nov 2023 02:41:34 GMT

...PILAR DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 PM MST Sun Nov 5 the center of Pilar was located near 10.7, -114.8 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Pilar Public Advisory Number 34

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Mon, 06 Nov 2023 02:41:34 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Nov 05 2023 229 WTPZ34 KNHC 060241 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Pilar Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 800 PM MST Sun Nov 05 2023 ...PILAR DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.7N 114.8W ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Pilar was located near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 114.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Pilar. Additional information on the remnant low can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>

Post-Tropical Cyclone Pilar Forecast Advisory Number 34

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Mon, 06 Nov 2023 02:41:34 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 06 2023 230 WTPZ24 KNHC 060241 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023 0300 UTC MON NOV 06 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 114.8W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 114.8W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 11.2N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 11.9N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 12.9N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.9N 119.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.7N 114.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON PILAR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>

Post-Tropical Cyclone Pilar Forecast Discussion Number 34

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Mon, 06 Nov 2023 02:42:41 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Nov 05 2023 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060242 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Pilar Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 800 PM MST Sun Nov 05 2023 After the low- and mid-level centers of Pilar decoupled this morning, the system has failed to produce any deep convection near the center. Although the system is still located over warm SSTs, dry mid-level air and strong mid-level shear is likely to prevent organized deep convection from returning. Therefore, Pilar has become a post-tropical remnant low. The initial wind speed has been lowered to 30 kt, based on a blend of the available satellite estimates, but this could be generous. The system could still produce a few bursts of deep convection during the next day or so, but it should continue to gradually spin down. The global model guidance indicates that the circulation will degenerate into a trough of low pressure within 2-3 days, if not sooner. They cyclone is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two as the low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the system weakens. Since the system has become vertically shallow, the NHC track is along the left or south side of the guidance envelop between the shallow Trajectory and Beta model (TABS), and the GFS and UKMET ensemble means. This is the last NHC advisory on Pilar. Additional information on the remnant low can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 10.7N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/1200Z 11.2N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0000Z 11.9N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1200Z 12.9N 117.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z 13.9N 119.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>

Post-Tropical Cyclone Pilar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Mon, 06 Nov 2023 02:42:07 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 06 2023 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 060241 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PILAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023 0300 UTC MON NOV 06 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PILAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>

Post-Tropical Cyclone Pilar Graphics

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Mon, 06 Nov 2023 02:43:03 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Nov 2023 02:43:03 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Nov 2023 03:22:31 GMT