WTPZ42 KNHC 160841 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM TARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222018

400 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018



AN AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY SUGGESTS THAT TARA IS A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THAN BEFORE.

THE IMAGE SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS

LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND,

BUT IT WAS NOT AS TIGHTLY COILED AS BEFORE.  CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE

IMAGERY HAS ALSO REVEALED AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THE AREA OF DEEP

CONVECTION AND SIZE OF THE COLD CLOUDS TOPS OVERNIGHT.  BASED ON

THESE TRENDS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT, WHICH IS

A BLEND OF THE LATEST TAFB AND SAB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.



THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAIN QUITE CHALLENGING THIS

MORNING.  IT APPEARS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND THE INTERACTION OF

THE CIRCULATION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO HAVE

CAUSED WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE

COAST, ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS PREDICTED, AND THE NHC FORECAST

CALLS FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TARA WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE MUCH SOONER THAN

SHOWN BELOW IF THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES INLAND OR IS SO

CLOSE TO THE COAST THAT THE CIRCULATION BECOMES DISRUPTED BY THE

MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  THE LATTER IS THE SCENARIO FAVORED BY MOST

OF THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.



SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT TARA CONTINUES TO INCH CLOSER TO THE

COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, AND THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL

MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 2 KT.  THE