WTPZ42 KNHC 142033 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222018

400 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2018



ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY, GOOD CYCLONIC ROTATION IS NOTED IN THE SMALL CONVECTIVE

ELEMENTS, AND AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE

LOW-LEVEL CENTER BASED ON WEAK CIRRUS OUTFLOW NOW OCCURING IN ALL

QUADRANTS. A FORTUITOUS SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 30 NMI WEST OF THE

CENTER AT 1800Z REPORTED A 30-KT NORTHERLY WIND AND 1010.7 MB

PRESSURE, WHICH HELPED TO LOCATE THE CENTER, AND ALSO TO ESTIMATE

THE INTENSITY AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY THEREFORE REMAINS 30 KT, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND A 1542Z SCATSAT PASS.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/06 KT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE

CONTINUES THE PREVIOUS MOTION TREND BY ONLY MOVING THE CYCLONE

SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT LESS THAN 5 KT FOR THE NEXT

FEW DAYS DUE TO THE DEPRESSION REMAINING EMBEDDED WITHIN A BREAK IN

A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM

CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH

AND LOW LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO

WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5, WHICH

WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE

CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE EASTERLY FLOW

SOUTH OF THE RIDGE, HELPING TO NUDGE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD AT A

SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK IS A

LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AFTER 48 H, AND LIES