WTIO32 PGTW 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 16.3N 86.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 86.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 17.4N 85.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 18.6N 84.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 20.0N 85.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 21.4N 86.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 23.6N 89.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 85.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A CLOUD- COVERED AND OBSCURED LLCC. AS OF 100000Z, THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A NASCENT EYE BEGINNING TO FORM, BUT THIS HAS YET TO BECOME DISTINCTLY EVIDENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OWING TO A 092316Z 36 GHZ GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A DISTINCT MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS WITH FAIR INTENSITY BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS), AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 58 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 06B LIES IN AN AREA HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL, WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW BEING PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE VERY NEAR THE SYSTEM, AND HIGH SSTS (29-30 CELSIUS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST THAILAND. TC TITLI, IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR, MAKING LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA NEAR TAU 24 AS IT APPROACHES THE STR AXIS. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH, THEN RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE. TC 06B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL, AS VWS REMAINS LOW, OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST AND SSTS INCREASE ALONG COASTAL INDIA. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE LOCAL TERRAIN, DISSIPATING OVER LAND OVER CENTRAL BANGLADESH BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, WITH A 70 NM SPREAD BETWEEN GFS TO THE WEST AND NAVGEM TO THE EAST DEFINING THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOMEWHAT AFTER LANDFALL BUT REMAINS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST, WITH ALONG TRACK ERROR BEING THE DOMINANT CONCERN AS THE SYSTEM RECURVES ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, HEDGED TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN