WTIO31 PGTW 131500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 54.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 54.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 15.1N 52.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 15.3N 50.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.7N 49.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 131500Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 54.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 127 NM SOUTH OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS RAIN BANDS CONTINUED TO EXPAND AND SWEEP ACROSS OMAN AND EASTERN YEMEN. TRANSVERSE BANDS SHARPLY OUTLINE THE NORTHERN CIRRUS STEAKS, AN INDICATION OF STRONG WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS CENTERED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON A LARGE, RAGGED, AND PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, EVIDENT IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW. TC 05A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND WILL ACCELERATE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL EAST-NORTHEAST OF MUKALLA, YEMEN AROUND TAU 20. LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FUEL A SMALL WINDOW OF SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION UP TO 50 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED AND DRY TERRAIN OF YEMEN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE TC LUBAN DOWN TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.// NNNN