WTIO31 PGTW 111500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 57.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 57.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 14.6N 57.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 14.7N 56.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 14.7N 55.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 14.9N 53.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 15.5N 50.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.1N 48.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 57.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 05A REMAINS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM AND THAT DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS SPARSE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON AN 110922Z 36GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A LARGE AND RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 05A IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALONG WITH A MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 05A IS SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD AND REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STRS) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHEAST. THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND ELONGATE AND ALLOW TC 05A TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG ITS SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. AS TC 05A TRACKS WESTWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST WITH INTENSITY REMAINING CONSTANT BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 36. TC 05A WILL MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72 WITH AN INTENSITY NEAR 50 KNOTS. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 05A WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED AND DIVERGES FROM THE INITIAL POSITION TO TAU 24 WITH A SPREAD OF 74 NM WITH AFUM INDICATING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND NVGM INDICATING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. FROM TAU 24 TO 72 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 05A WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH A 100NM SPREAD AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. AFTER TAU 72 MODELS AGREE THAT TC 05A WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. HOWEVER, THERE IS A MODEL SPREAD OF 195 NM BY TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS, SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.// NNNN