WTIO31 PGTW 101500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 14.4N 58.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 58.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 14.6N 58.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 14.8N 57.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 15.0N 57.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 15.2N 56.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 15.5N 53.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 15.6N 50.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 16.8N 49.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 58.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTLY TOWARD THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RAGGED CLOUD-FILLED EYE IN THE 101030Z 1-KM VISIBLE IMAGERY THAT IS ADJUSTED FOR A SMALL SLANT AND LINED UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 101216Z GPM GMI PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.5/77KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS WEDGED BETWEEN TWO REFLECTIONS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) - ONE TO THE NW AND ONE TO THE ENE. THE COMBINED EFFECT IS RESULTING IN A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT. AFTER TAU 48, TC LUBAN WILL TRACK MORE WESTWARD AND AT A FASTER RATE AS THE STR TO THE ENE REORIENTS AND BUILDS. BY TAU 84, TC 05A WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN YEMEN, ENE OF MUKALLA. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE INTENSITY AT 75 KTS THEN DOWN TO 65 KTS AFTER TAU 12 AND INTO TAU 72; AFTERWARD, RISING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, IT WILL BE WEAKENED TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE DRY TERRAIN OF YEMEN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS OUT TO OVER 270 NM BY TAU 120. THIS FORECAST IS LAID LEFT OF CONSENSUS AND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF, EEMN, HWRF, AND CTCX SOLUTION OFFERING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN ANTICIPATION OF A STRONGER STR. GIVEN THE LARGE DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK MODELS, THERE REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN