WTIO31 PGTW 100300 COR MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 009A CORRECTED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 59.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 59.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 14.4N 58.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 14.6N 57.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 14.7N 57.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 14.8N 56.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 14.8N 54.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.7N 51.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 14.9N 48.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 58.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING SYSTEM, WITH A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE BEGINNING TO REVEAL ITSELF AS OF 100000Z, WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CLOUD COVERED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 100001Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE AND EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS), AN AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 53 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 05A IS SITUATED IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A POINT SOURCE IN THE VICINITY AND LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS. SSTS SEEM TO BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR, WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ESTIMATED NEAR 27-28 CELSIUS, REFLECTIVE OF UPWELLING AS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, CAUGHT BETWEEN COMPETING STEERING RIDGES OVER CENTRAL SAUDI ARABIA AND WESTERN INDIA AND A WEAK TROUGH TO THE NORTH WHICH HAS HELPED DEVELOP A BREAK IN THE STR. THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS STR OVER INDIA STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. BY TAU 36, THE STR OVER SAUDI ARABIA WILL RIDGE EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF TC 05A, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TURN ONTO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 48. DUE TO THE UPWELLING OF COOL WATERS TO THE SURFACE AND THE SLOW FORECAST MOVEMENT, INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY AT 70 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 36, WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF WEAKENING AT TAU 48. AFTER ACCELERATING TOWARDS THE WEST, TC LUBAN IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO WARMER WATERS AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TO THE NORTHEAST OF MUKALLA, YEMEN AROUND TAU 100 AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND TERRAIN INTERACTION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH A LARGE BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, ESPECIALLY BEYOND TAU 48. THE U.S. MODELS (NAVGEM, GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, AFUM) AS WELL AS THE EGRR MODEL INDICATE A LANDFALL NEAR THE YEMEN-OMAN BORDER REGION BY TAU 96. THE MESOSCALE MODELS (HWRF, COAMS-TC) AND THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE COMPRISE THE OTHER SOLUTION, TAKING THE SYSTEM TO A LANDFALL JUST WEST OF MUKALLA NEAR TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF AND MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LOW DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. 2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY IN REMARKS TO MATCH WARNING TEXT.// NNNN