WTIO31 PGTW 090900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 60.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 60.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 13.7N 59.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 13.9N 58.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 14.2N 57.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 14.4N 56.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 14.4N 55.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 14.5N 53.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 14.2N 49.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 59.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 416 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE; HOWEVER, RAIN BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT REMAINS OBSCURED BY CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE 090308Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5/55KTS AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE OVERALL WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD BUT LIMITED RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 36, TC 05A WILL TRACK MORE WESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS, AND BY TAU 120, WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF MUKALA, OMAN, IN THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF ADEN. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION UP TO 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48; AFTERWARD, RISING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, IT WILL BE WEAKENED TO 50 KNOTS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS HEADING MORE POLEWARD TOWARD SALALAH, AND THE MINORITY - INCLUDING ECMWF AND CTCX - OFFERING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS LAID CLOSER TO THE LATTER SOLUTION IN ANTICIPATION OF A STRONGER STR. GIVEN THE LARGE DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK MODELS, THERE REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIX) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN