WTIO31 PGTW 080900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 12.3N 61.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 61.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 12.8N 60.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 13.2N 59.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 13.5N 58.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 13.9N 57.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 14.4N 56.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 15.0N 54.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 15.5N 52.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 61.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 512 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO DEEP PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING FEATURE SEEN IN MSI IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 080511Z METOP-B AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A CONSOLIDATED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KTS, ON THE LOW END OF PGTW AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING T3.0 (45 KTS) TO T3.5 (55 KTS), SUPPORTED BY AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) AND A 080512Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING TWO 45 KT WIND BARBS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 DEGREES C) ARE OVERCOMING MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ENABLING RAPID DEVELOPMENT. TC 05A IS TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS NORTH. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PASSING WEST-TO-EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR IS CREATING A BREAK IN THE STR, WHICH WILL ALLOW TC 05A TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS EASTERN YEMEN. THE ECMWF AND COAMPS-TC MODELS DEPICT AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IN WHICH THE STR AHEAD OF TC 05A IS MAINTAINED, CAUSING 05A TO TURN WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF ADEN WHERE IT WOULD INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. TC 05A IS CURRENTLY SHOWING SINGS OF RAPID DEVELOPMENT WHICH WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR IT BREAKING THROUGH THE GAP IN THE STR, AS DEPICTED BY THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE. TC 05A IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND CONTINUE ITS RAPID DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 12, AFTER WHICH POLEWARD OUTFLOW BECOMES INHIBITED ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KTS AT TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED JUST LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER TAU 72, 05A IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS OUTFLOW IS FURTHER INHIBITED AND VWS INCREASES SLIGHTLY. DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTLIERS AND THE RESULTING 400 NM SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE AT TAU 120, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (I.E. HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.// NNNN