WTNT82 EGRR 201604



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 20.09.2018



   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L        ANALYSED POSITION :  9.9N  48.9W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 20.09.2018    0   9.9N  48.9W     1013            21

    0000UTC 21.09.2018   12              CEASED TRACKING



   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E        ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N 110.1W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 20.09.2018    0  28.4N 110.1W     1005            19

    0000UTC 21.09.2018   12              CEASED TRACKING



 TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.3N  66.4W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 20.09.2018    0  34.3N  66.4W     1006            32

    0000UTC 21.09.2018   12  33.9N  63.9W     1008            29

    1200UTC 21.09.2018   24  31.4N  64.4W     1011            29

    0000UTC 22.09.2018   36  29.7N  64.2W     1011            28

    1200UTC 22.09.2018   48  28.9N  64.9W     1012            25

    0000UTC 23.09.2018   60  28.1N  66.5W     1011            26

    1200UTC 23.09.2018   72              CEASED TRACKING



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 33.9N  43.6W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 22.09.2018   48  33.9N  43.6W     1003            32

    0000UTC 23.09.2018   60  34.0N  44.8W      999            42

    1200UTC 23.09.2018   72  33.9N  45.7W      996            40

    0000UTC 24.09.2018   84  33.2N  46.9W      999            35

    1200UTC 24.09.2018   96  33.6N  47.3W     1003            32

    0000UTC 25.09.2018  108  32.7N  46.4W     1004            31

    1200UTC 25.09.2018  120  32.7N  45.0W     1000            31

    0000UTC 26.09.2018  132  32.0N  42.9W      996            39

    1200UTC 26.09.2018  144  32.8N  39.6W      987            48



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  78 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 27.2N 168.6W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 24.09.2018   84  27.0N 169.4W     1002            28

    1200UTC 24.09.2018   96  25.4N 170.6W     1003            22

    0000UTC 25.09.2018  108  24.6N 169.5W     1003            22

    1200UTC 25.09.2018  120              CEASED TRACKING



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  96 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 14.0N 109.7W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 24.09.2018   96  14.0N 109.7W     1005            22

    0000UTC 25.09.2018  108  14.7N 112.1W     1003            23

    1200UTC 25.09.2018  120  15.5N 114.4W     1004            26

    0000UTC 26.09.2018  132  16.4N 116.3W     1003            30

    1200UTC 26.09.2018  144  17.0N 117.7W     1004            25



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 11.5N  39.6W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 25.09.2018  108  11.9N  41.3W     1007            36

    1200UTC 25.09.2018  120  12.7N  44.6W     1004            41

    0000UTC 26.09.2018  132  13.6N  46.8W     1001            47

    1200UTC 26.09.2018  144  14.5N  48.8W      995            53





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 201604