WTXS31 PGTW 160300 COR MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 005 CORRECTED// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 005A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 11.0S 68.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 68.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 11.6S 65.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 12.0S 63.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 11.8S 61.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 11.1S 58.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 8.4S 52.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 5.6S 46.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 67.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 152105Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SOLID MASS OF CONVECTION WITH NO SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC AND A WARM FEATURE IN THE 152105Z AMSR-2 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KTS, SLIGHTLY UNDER PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 01S HAS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUT NO EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). COOLER (24-25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE LIMITING DEVELOPMENT. 01S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. MODELS SHOW THAT 01S WILL TURN DUE WESTWARD AROUND TAU 24, THEN TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND TRACK TOWARDS THE AFRICAN COAST AS ANOTHER STR BUILDS IN TO ITS SOUTHWEST, WHILE MAINTAINING A MARGINAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS DUE TO THE COOL SSTS. 01S WILL DROP BELOW 35 KTS AFTER TAU 72. THERE IS A 210 NM SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE AT TAU 72, WITH ECMWF THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z. 2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED REMARKS SECTION.// NNNN