WTXS31 PGTW 151500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 10.7S 70.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 70.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 11.1S 67.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 11.8S 65.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 12.3S 63.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 12.1S 61.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 10.3S 55.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 7.3S 50.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 69.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDGET SYSTEM WITH A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A NOTCH FEATURE IN THE 151128Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON EQUIVALENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE MARGINAL AT 26 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK UP TO TAU 36, AFTERWARD A SECONDARY STR EXTENDING FROM MOZAMBIQUE WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. COOLING SSTS AND THE INFLUX OF COOL DRY AIR FROM THE AFRICAN CONTINENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TC 01S, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96, POSSIBLY SOONER. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.// NNNN