WTPZ42 KNHC 082050 RRA

TCDEP2



HURRICANE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172018

200 PM PDT SAT SEP 08 2018



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF OLIVIA HAS REMAINED ABOUT THE SAME

FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, AS EYEWALL CONVECTION STAYS MOSTLY

SOLID AROUND THE EYE.  DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE BASICALLY UNCHANGED, SO

THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 75 KT.  OLIVIA SHOULD STAY A

HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT IS EXPERIENCING LIGHT

SHEAR, BALANCED BY VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND MARGINAL BUT WARMING SSTS.

AFTER THE WEEKEND, MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT

WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE, AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST WHILE

OLIVIA APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES

WERE MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST.



OLIVIA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KT.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE

SYNOPTIC REASONING.  A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD STEER THE

HURRICANE BASICALLY DUE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THEREAFTER, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER HAWAII SHOULD CAUSE OLIVIA TO

LOSE SOME LATITUDE AND MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE MAIN

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS CYCLE,

WITH THE UKMET AND GFS MODELS TRENDING MORE TO THE NORTH, RESULTING

IN A SMALLER GUIDANCE SPREAD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A

BIT NORTHWARD TO MATCH THE GUIDANCE TREND.  A C-130 PLANE IS

CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND OLIVIA,

WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY AID LATER FORECASTS, WHICH WILL BE ISSUED BY

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER.





KEY MESSAGES:



1. OLIVIA IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM

THE EAST ON TUESDAY, AND PASS CLOSE TO OR OVER THE ISLANDS ON