WTPZ42 KNHC 042034 RRA

TCDEP2



HURRICANE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172018

200 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2018



OLIVIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED 15-20

N MI WIDE EYE INSIDE A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  A COMPLEX OF OUTER

BANDS IS ALSO OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE VARIOUS

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 100-110 KT

RANGE, AND THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 105 KT.  IT

SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED IN AN

APPARENT ENVIRONMENT OF 10-20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,

AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND ANALYSES FROM CIMSS.



AS WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST, HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION

WILL OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT

CONTINUED SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE

FORECAST TRACK WILL ALLOW 12 H OR LESS OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING,

AND THE GUIDANCE AGAIN FORECASTS ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING

THIS TIME.  GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, THE

INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT STOP INTENSIFICATION THAT ABRUPTLY, AND

IT NOW CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KT IN 12 H AT THE UPPER

EDGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT OLIVIA

COULD GET STRONGER THAN THIS.  AFTER 12-24 H, THE COOLER SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL

WEAKENING EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE. THIS PART

OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST LIES A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY

CONSENSUS.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10, AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE A

LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF DUE WEST.  AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY, A