WTPZ42 KNHC 031440 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172018

900 AM MDT MON SEP 03 2018



THERE HAS BEEN A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH OLIVIA OVERNIGHT,

WITH THE CENTER EITHER MOVING INTO OR REFORMING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT A DEVELOPING

INNER CORE IS PRESENT AS WELL, ALONG WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN

CURVED BANDING.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO 55 KT,

WHICH AGREES WELL WITH THE LATEST CIMSS-SATCON ESTIMATES, SO THE

INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO THAT VALUE.



WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS, NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST, WHICH SHOULD KEEP

THE INTENSIFICATION RATES OF THE CYCLONE IN CHECK, ALONG WITH SOME

MID-LEVEL DRY AIR.  SLOW STRENGTHENING SEEMS MOST LIKELY, AND THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE, MOSTLY DUE TO THE

HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CORRECTED-

CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS EVEN HIGHER, SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST COULD

BE CONSERVATIVE.  OLIVIA SHOULD MOVE OVER MORE MARGINAL WATERS IN A

FEW DAYS, AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT LONG RANGE.



OLIVIA APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT, BUT THIS IS

PRETTY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE RECENT CENTER JUMP.  THE STORM SHOULD

MOVE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE WEST-

NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A STRONG

RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.  ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS

SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLE, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A

STRONGER CYCLONE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE, SO THE