WTPZ42 KNHC 030845 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172018

300 AM MDT MON SEP 03 2018



10 TO 15 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, NOTED BY THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR

ANALYSIS AND THE DECAY SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL, CONTINUES TO IMPEDE

OLIVIA'S CLOUD PATTERN.  A BLEND OF THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND AN EARLIER SATCON ESTIMATE SUPPORT

HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT.



ONLY MODEST SHORT-TERM STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY

OR SO DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SHEAR.  AFTERWARDS, A WEAKENING TREND

SHOULD COMMENCE AS A RESULT OF STRONGER SHEAR, DECREASING SEA

SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND A LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC

ENVIRONMENT.  IT'S WORTH NOTING, HOWEVER, THAT THE DECAY SHIPS

INDICATES A LONGER, SLOWER INTENSIFICATION PERIOD THROUGH DAY 3,

WHILE THE BETTER PERFORMING IVCN AND NOAA-HCCA INTENSITY CONSENSUS

GUIDANCE REFLECT A SHORTER PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION, ONLY 24 HOURS,

FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH DAY 5.  SUBSEQUENTLY, THESE

MODELS NO LONGER INDICATE THAT OLIVIA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE, AND

NEITHER DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  A COMPROMISE OF THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY, AND A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS WAS USED AS A BASIS

FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD, OR 280/6 KT.

OLIVIA SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO

THE NORTH.  BY DAY 3, OLIVIA SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE

RIDGE.  ONLY A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS