WTPZ41 KNHC 311438 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162018

800 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2018



NORMAN APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.

ALTHOUGH A LACK OF EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY HASN'T HELPED TO

SUPPORT THIS SPECULATION, ENHANCED INFRARED BD-CURVE IMAGES,

HOWEVER, REVEALED A COLLAPSE OF THE INNER CORE IN THE NORTHEAST

QUADRANT SEVERAL HOURS AGO.  CURRENTLY, THAT PORTION OF THE

EYEWALL HAS BEGUN TO FILL IN WITH A SOLID RING COMPLETELY

SURROUNDING THE EYE, ALBEIT, RATHER THIN.  CONSEQUENTLY,

SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS, AS WELL AS AN EARLIER SATCON

ANALYSIS, SUPPORT A SLIGHT DECREASE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 115

KT.



FURTHER SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD,

ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE SHORT-TERM DUE TO THE

AFOREMENTIONED INNER CORE STRUCTURE EVOLUTION.  THERE ALSO APPEARS

TO BE SOME MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IMPINGING THE NORTHEAST

PORTION OF THE CYCLONE, WHICH COULD HAMPER STRENGTHENING. THE DECAY

SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL PERSIST DURING

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THROUGH THE REMAINING PART OF THE

FORECAST, DECREASING SSTS AND THE INTRUSION OF A MORE STABLE/DRIER

ENVIRONMENT FROM THE NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING.  THE

NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND FOLLOWS THE

NOAA-HCCA AND IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-SOUTHWEST, OR 245/7 KT.

THE CYCLONE'S MOTION IS CURRENTLY INFLUENCED BY A

NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID-TO-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE

RESIDING BETWEEN HURRICANE MIRIAM TO THE WEST, AND NORMAN TO THE