WTPZ41 KNHC 301447 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162018

800 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2018



NORMAN HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED DURING THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS,

WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-DEFINED 20-NMI-WIDE EYE AND A THICK

RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS OF -70 TO -85C.  DVORAK CONSTRAINTS HAVE

LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF INCREASE IN THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE FINAL

T-NUMBERS, BUT THE MOST RECENT RAW DATA T-NUMBERS ARE BETWEEN T6.5

AND T7.2, WHICH YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 130 KT.

NORMAN'S INTENSITY HAS INCREASED AN ESTIMATED 70 KT FROM 1200 UTC

YESTERDAY MORNING TO 1200 UTC THIS MORNING- THE FASTEST IN THE

BASIN SINCE PATRICIA IN 2015.  NORMAN HAS BECOME THE 5TH CATEGORY 4

HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IN 2018 AND IS ALSO THE STRONGEST

HURRICANE IN THE BASIN SO FAR THIS SEASON.



THE HURRICANE REMAINS IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND WILL CONTINUE

TO MOVE OVER VERY WARM WATERS OF 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS FOR ANOTHER

24 HOURS.  THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL

STRENGTHENING AND NORMAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 5

HURRICANE LATER TODAY.  EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE LIKELY AFTER

THAT TIME, WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT, AND SHOULD CAUSE SOME

FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER IN

THE PERIOD, GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A

SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING.

HOWEVER, NORMAN IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE

5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.



NORMAN IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270/7 KT. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE

THAT EXTENDS FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD