WTPZ41 KNHC 300846 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162018

200 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2018



NORMAN IS IN THE MIDST OF A REMARKABLE PERIOD OF RAPID

INTENSIFICATION.  AN EYE DEVELOPED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY

AROUND 0500 UTC AND IS COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD

TOPS QUADRANTS.  A BURST OF LIGHTNING ALSO BEGAN A COUPLE OF HOURS

AGO IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, WHERE CLOUD TOPS ARE AS COLD AS

-84C.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ROSE QUICKLY TO T5.5/102 KT FROM

SAB AND T5.0/90 KT FROM TAFB AT 0600 UTC, AND SINCE THE SATELLITE

PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET

NEAR THE TOP OF THAT RANGE AT 100 KT, MAKING NORMAN A MAJOR

HURRICANE.  NORMAN'S INTENSITY HAS INCREASED BY AN ESTIMATED 45-50

KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.



NORMAN REMAINS IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL

OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS, AND THE HURRICANE IS MOVING OVER VERY

WARM WATERS OF 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS.  BARRING ANY UNFORESEEN

STRUCTURAL CHANGES LIKE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT, NORMAN IS LIKELY TO

CONTINUE STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO, AND NEARLY ALL

OF THE INTENSITY MODELS DEPICT THE CURRENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION

PHASE PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY

FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT

FOR RECENT TRENDS, AND IT CLOSELY MATCHES AN AVERAGE OF THE HCCA

MODEL, FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE, AND ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

A VERY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS AS NORMAN

ENCOUNTERS SOME SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS.



A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST OF NORTHERN MEXICO IS