WTPA44 PHFO 040856 RRA

TCDCP4



HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  29

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP162018

1100 PM HST MON SEP 03 2018



NORMAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THE FINAL VISIBLE

SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOWED A CLOUD-FILLED EYE, AND CLOUD

TOPS HAVE WARMED FURTHER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SUBJECTIVE

DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 4.5/77 KT FROM PHFO,

AND 4.0/65 KT FROM SAB/JTWC, WHILE THE LATEST CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS

4.2/70 KT. A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INITIAL

INTENSITY TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED SLIGHTLY TO AN ALMOST DUE WEST TRACK THIS

EVENING, AND IT APPEARS THAT THE ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED HAS BEGUN. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15 KT, WHICH IS

A FEW KNOTS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WESTWARD MOTION WITH

A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH

THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS NORMAN NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A

STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER, THE

CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THEN TO THE

NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES AROUND THE END OF THE RIDGE AND IS

INCREASINGLY STEERED BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NORTH

PACIFIC. MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER

AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS TURN. THE CONSENSUS

GUIDANCE HCCA, TVCE AND FSSE ARE TIGHTLY PACKED AND IN GOOD

AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS, THEN

SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT THEREAFTER. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS

VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND GENERALLY LIES VERY CLOSE