WTPZ42 KNHC 052039 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

400 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2018



THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE

SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY AND THE

ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO CLASSIFY THE

SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, THE TWELFTH TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE

2018 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS

SET AT 30 KT, WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT.  THE

TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE DEPRESSION IS COMPLICATED DUE

TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA TO ITS

EAST-SOUTHEAST.  SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY, HOWEVER, THE TRACK GUIDANCE

IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION

AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN

MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS LARGER

THAN ILEANA, MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ILEANA WILL MOVE

AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE'S

CIRCULATION AND WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS

NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE SLOWER ECMWF

SOLUTION, AND THE FASTER GFS, HWRF, AND HMON TRACKS.



THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY OVER VERY WARM SSTS, WITHIN LOW SHEAR,

AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE.  THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION

WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS QUITE

AGGRESSIVE IN INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY

MORE CONSERVATIVE DURING THE FIRST 36 H SINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL