WTPZ41 KNHC 060859 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

400 AM CDT MON AUG 06 2018



A STRONG BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION CONSISTING OF SOME CLOUD TOP

TEMPERATURES OF -85 TO -90 DEG C NEAR THE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO)

FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED AS A RESULT, AND THE ACAPULCO, MEXICO, RADAR

INDICATES THAT A BANDED EYE FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CENTER OF

THE CDO. BASED ON THE RADAR DATA AND A UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF

T3.6/57 KT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT.



ILEANA HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF

RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM JOHN, AND INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE

IS NOW 310/15 KT. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST

TRACK OTHER THAN TO NUDGE THE FORECAST A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT,

CLOSER TO MEXICO, DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION BASED

ON THE AFOREMENTIONED RADAR DATA. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM JOHN AND A DEEP-LAYER

RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT

ON THIS TRACK SCENARIO UNTIL DISSIPATION OR ABSORPTION OCCURS IN

ABOUT 72 HOURS, AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE HCCA

AND FSSE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL SOLUTIONS.



THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KT OVER THE NEXT 24

HOURS, AND THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS ACTUALLY INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR

COULD BE LOWER THAN THAT SINCE MOST OF THE STRONGER OUTFLOW FROM

TROPICAL STORM JOHN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF ILEANA. BASED ON THE

EXPECTED LOWER SHEAR CONDITIONS, A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE, SSTS