WTPZ41 KNHC 050238 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

1000 PM CDT SAT AUG 04 2018



AFTER HAVING A SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION EARLIER

TODAY, THE FINAL GOES-16 VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWED WHAT APPEARED TO BE

THE CYCLONE'S LOW-LEVEL CENTER POPPING OUT FROM THE NORTHWESTERN

EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. SINCE THAT TIME, THE REMAINING

CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED,

APPARENTLY DUE TO ENHANCED WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LINEAR BAND

OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.



THIS STRUCTURAL DEGRADATION OF THE SYSTEM FURTHER COMPLICATES WHAT

WAS ALREADY A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO THE DEPRESSION

INTERACTING WITH THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM LOCATED TO ITS WEST. THE 18Z

GFS DOESN'T HAVE MUCH OF A REPRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION, AND IT

IS QUICKLY LOST IN THE MODEL INTEGRATION. THE LATEST HWRF FIELDS

SHOW THE VORTEX BEING ABSORBED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE

DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST AFTER 24 HOURS, AND THE HMON SHOWS THE

SYSTEM DISSIPATING IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE 12Z

RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET MAINTAIN THE DEPRESSION INTO DAYS 4 AND

5, RESPECTIVELY. IN AN EFFORT TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE

PREVIOUS FORECAST WHILE ACKNOWLEDGING THE CURRENT TRENDS, THE NEW

INTENSITY FORECAST STILL SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING BUT AT A SLOWER

RATE GIVEN THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE WINNING OUT SO

FAR OVER THE WARM SSTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CARRIES THE TROPICAL

CYCLONE THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION SHOWN AT DAY 4, BUT IT

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE CYCLONE DISSIPATED MUCH SOONER THAN