WTPZ41 KNHC 042034 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

400 PM CDT SAT AUG 04 2018



SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE FAR

EASTERN PACIFIC HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED

THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH THE FORMATION OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW

PRESSURE CENTER AND DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZED IN A DISTINCT CURVED

BAND.  BASED ON THESE CRITERIA, THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT IN

ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.



BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS CONGEALED SO QUICKLY, THE INITIAL MOTION IS

UNCERTAIN BUT ESTIMATED TO BE 285/11 KT.  THE CYCLONE'S FUTURE

MOTION WILL ULTIMATELY BE DICTATED BY A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC

RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND ITS PROXIMITY TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOCATED

ABOUT 450 N MI TO THE WEST.  A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A

NEARLY CONSTANT SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS DUE TO

THE RIDGE.  AFTER THAT TIME, THE CYCLONE COULD BEGIN TO SLINGSHOT

AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LARGER WEATHER SYSTEM TO ITS WEST.

MANY OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE DEPRESSION VERY WELL.

THE GFS BARELY DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW FROM THE GET-GO, AND THE HWRF

DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ACCOUNTING SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF

BINARY INTERACTION.  AS A RESULT, THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST

MATCHES THE CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET, THE ONLY TWO MODELS

WHICH APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT GRASP ON THE SITUATION.



ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS OF

29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS, THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND