WTPZ45 KNHC 052051 RRA

TCDEP5



HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  21

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102018

200 PM PDT SUN AUG 05 2018



HECTOR CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION. A

1559 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT HECTOR LIKELY

COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT SINCE THIS MORNING, WITH THE EYE

BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.  BOTH CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND

THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE DATA SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BANDING

OUTSIDE OF THE SYMMETRIC CDO, SUGGESTING THAT HECTOR HAS SOME

CHARACTERISTICS OF AN ANNULAR HURRICANE.  SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T6.0/115 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND THE

LATEST UW/CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE UP TO T6.1 OR 117 KT. AS

RESULT, THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 115 KT, MAKING HECTOR

A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN.



HECTOR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN VERY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

WHILE IT TRAVERSES SSTS OF AROUND 27C DURING MUCH OF THE FORECAST

PERIOD.  HOWEVER, THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF

DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WHICH IS LIKELY TO INDUCE SOME WEAKENING LATER

IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GIVEN HECTOR'S ANNULAR-LIKE STRUCTURE,

THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A MORE GRADUAL RATE OF WEAKENING

SINCE ANNULAR HURRICANES TEND TO BE MORE STABLE AND WEAKEN MORE

SLOWLY.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE

HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL, HCCA.



THE HURRICANE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OR 275/11 KT. THERE IS

BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING.  HECTOR IS FORECAST

TO MOVE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO TO

THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED