WTPZ45 KNHC 041435 RRA

TCDEP5



HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  16

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102018

800 AM PDT SAT AUG 04 2018



THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SUBTLE CHANGES IN HECTOR DURING THE PAST

SEVERAL HOURS WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A SLIGHT DISRUPTION

OF THE EYEWALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN.  THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A

SLOWLY EVOLVING EYEWALL CYCLE, WHICH CAN ONLY BE READILY SEEN BY

HIGH-RESOLUTION MICROWAVE DATA SUCH AS AMSR2, DUE TO HECTOR'S

SMALL SIZE.  INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN VIRTUALLY THE SAME, SO THE

WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 105 KT.



DUE THE EYEWALL CYCLE, FUTURE INTENSITY CHANGES ARE HARDER TO

PREDICT.  SINCE HECTOR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE

LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT, ALBEIT WITH MARGINAL SSTS, LITTLE OVERALL

CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HECTOR'S SMALL SIZE COULD ALSO MAKE IT PRONE TO SHORT-TERM

FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY, UP OR DOWN, LIKE THE ONE OBSERVED

YESTERDAY. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS, HECTOR IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SOMEWHAT

COOLER SSTS AND INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT, SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS

SHOWN.  LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC WIND SPEED

PREDICTION, NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS.



HECTOR IS LOCKED INTO A WESTWARD MOTION OF 270/10 KT. A LARGE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE GENERALLY

WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HECTOR GRADUALLY

GAINING SOME LATITUDE ON SUNDAY AND BEYOND DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE

RIDGE.  OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN

YESTERDAY, AND ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS TRACK

FORECAST.



THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HECTOR TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN