WTPZ45 KNHC 040235 RRA

TCDEP5



HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  14

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102018

800 PM PDT FRI AUG 03 2018



HECTOR HAS CONTINUED TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY,

WITH THE EYE BECOMING MORE DISTINCT AND THE CLOUD TOPS IN THE

EYEWALL COOLING TO NEAR -80C.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM

TAFB AND SAB WERE 102 KT NEAR 00Z, AND GIVEN THE INCREASING

ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO

105 KT.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/10.  THERE IS AGAIN LITTLE CHANGE TO

THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, AS A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE

NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD STEER HECTOR GENERALLY WESTWARD

DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE, THE

HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE FROM 36-96 H.  WHILE THE

GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF

SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAVGEM ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE

ENVELOPE AND THE UKMET AND ECMWF ON THE SOUTH SIDE.  THE CONSENSUS

MODELS ARE IN THE CENTER OF THE ENVELOPE, AND THE NEW FORECAST IS

CLOSE TO THESE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS.

THE NEW FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK.



RECENT SATELLITE MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT HECTOR IS DEVELOPING AN

OUTER EYEWALL, WHICH SUGGESTS THE HURRICANE SHOULD UNDERGO AN

EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS MAKES IT

A LITTLE UNCLEAR HOW LONG THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION WILL LAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL SHOW A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING DURING

THE NEXT 12 HR FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH 36 H.

THE HWRF, HMON, AND COAMPS-TC MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE