WTIO30 FMEE 301305 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/9/20172018 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FLAMBOYAN) 2.A POSITION 2018/04/30 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 84.4 E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 330 SW: 430 NW: 170 34 KT NE: 160 SE: 200 SW: 220 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2018/05/01 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 83.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 24H: 2018/05/01 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 83.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36H: 2018/05/02 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 83.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 48H: 2018/05/02 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 84.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 60H: 2018/05/03 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 85.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 72H: 2018/05/03 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 87.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2018/05/04 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 94.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=4.0- CI=4.0- LATEST MW DATA SHOW THAT TC FLAMBOYAN HAS STRENGTHENED SINCE LAST NIGHT WITH AN IRREGULAR MID LEVEL EYE FORMED BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. LATEST ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH 37 GHZ MW IMAGERY REVEAL AN IMPORTANT WEAKNESS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAIN STEADY DURING THE LAST THREE HOURS, ON EMBEDDED CENTER. ALL AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE AT 4.0 OR 57 KT (10-MIN). ADT IS AT 72 KT (10-MIN) AT 1145Z AND THE LATEST AVAILABLE SATCON (0832Z) IS AT 69 KT (10-MIN). THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT BSED ON A BLENDING OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. ASCAT DATA AND MW IMAGERY ALSO REVEAL THAT FLAMBOYAN HAS NOW A MUCH LARGER STRUCTURE (INNER-CORE AND, IN A LESSER MANNER THE OUTER WINDS RADII). FLAMBOYAN HAS STILL A FEW HOURS OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE SHEAR HAS STARTED TO PICK UP BUT STILL REMAINS LOW. THE OCEANIC CONTAIN WILL FALL AS THE TRACK WILL NEAR 18S. THE EXPECTED SHEAR INCREASE TONIGHT WILL START AN IRREVERSIBLE WEAKENING TREND. ONLY BAROCLINIC PROCESS, THAT SHOULD TAKE PLACE LATE TOMORROW, MAY SLOW DOWN THIS TREND. FLAMBOYAN IS ON ITS TRACK TO ROUND THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO IT EAST WITH A GRADUAL SOUTH-EASTWARDS TURN EXPECTED DURING THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD.=