WTXS31 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 23.8S 58.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 58.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 25.2S 59.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 26.3S 60.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 58.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 226 NM SOUTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP AND A LOW REFLECTIVITY NOTCH FEATURE IN A 241746Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45-55 KNOTS) WHICH REFLECTS THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 20S STILL HAS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF HIGH (40-50 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH COOL (25-26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND BECOME DISORGANIZED, DESPITE THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ENHANCED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST MADAGASCAR. TC FAKIR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST AND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST OVER MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH TRANSITS TO THE EAST, A RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND, OVER MADAGASCAR, WHICH WILL SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. TC 20S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AND COOLING SSTS ALONG ITS FORECAST TRACK LEADING TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK DIRECTION WITH A FEW OUTLIERS (NAVGEM, GFS ENSEMBLE, JGSM) THAT PREDICT TC 20S WILL HOOK BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM IS SHEARED APART. TRACK SPEED ALSO VARIES SUBSTANTIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST TRACKING CONSENSUS MODELS. DUE TO THESE OUTLIERS AND THE VARIATIONS IN ALONG TRACK SPEED, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//