WTXS31 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 19.5S 55.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 22 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 55.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 22.2S 56.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 24.3S 58.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 25.7S 59.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 26.6S 60.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 55.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 61 NM NORTH OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A RAGGED, FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE PRESENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE PRESENT IN THE EIR LOOP AND A 232355Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 20S HAS ENTERED AN AREA OF HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0 (55-65 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. THE INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 59 KNOTS. TC FAKIR IS CURRENTLY ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD IN AN ENHANCED STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST OVER MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER, A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY SLOW THE SYSTEMS FORWARD MOTION AFTER TAU 24. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 6 WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY STRONG OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 6, TC 20S WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUSING INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COMBINED WITH COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THAT WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK DIRECTION THROUGH TAU 48 WITH PREVIOUS OUTLIERS NOW AGREEING WITH THE CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE ALONG TRACK SPEED AS EACH MODEL BUILDS IN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AT A DIFFERENT TIME. THE SPREAD IN ALONG TRACK SPEED LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//