WTPS31 PGTW 241500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 141.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 141.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 15.5S 141.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 16.2S 141.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 16.6S 141.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 16.9S 141.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 241500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 141.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SHOWS THE EASTERN FLANK HAS BEGUN TO ERODE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTED WITH CAPE YORK PENINSULA; HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE BANDS REMAINED RELATIVELY DEEP AND TIGHTLY-WRAPPED INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM WEIPA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHTLY WEAKENED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF 16P. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 15-KNOT NORTHERLY VWS BUT STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS IN THE GULF ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30-31C. TC NORA IS IMMINENTLY EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AND TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF CAPE YORK PENINSULA AS THE NER BUILDS. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR ANCHORED OVER WESTERN CENTRAL AUSTRALIA WILL BUILD AND COMPETE FOR STEERING, CAUSING TC 16P TO BECOME QS. THE INITIAL LAND INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TC 16P, THEN AFTER TAU 12, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND, AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS FURTHER INLAND, WILL CAUSE A MORE RAPID DECAY. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND SOUTH OF KOWANYAMA. THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN UNISON WITH THE TRACK OUTLINED ABOVE WITH AFUM AS THE SOLE EASTWARD OUTLIER. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID JUST WEST OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE AFUM SOLUTION. IN VIEW OF THIS AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF A QS MOTION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//